Minnesota’s precinct caucus straw polls cemented Marty Seifert’s front-running role in the Republican governor’s race, but the picture remains fuzzy for Democrats.
While Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, also from Minneapolis, each received about 20 percent of a straw poll vote, many factors affect the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party gubernatorial race:
- Democrats not committed to any candidate were the third most prevalent in the Tuesday night caucuses; 15 percent did not pick a candidate, which gives second-tier candidates hope to catch Rybak and Kelliher.
- The 20 percent each of the top two candidates received is far less than what will be needed to receive a state convention endorsement next April.
- The best-known candidate, former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton, did not take part in the Tuesday non-binding straw poll, saying that he thinks the public should pick the DFL candidate in the August primary election. Also going that route will be Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner and probably former state Rep. Matt Entenza. Dayton and Entenza have lots of money available, giving them an edge in a primary race.
- It will take days, or longer, for campaigns to sort out their caucus support. Everyone who attended caucuses could vote in the straw poll, but only some of them move on to future conventions and have the right to endorse a candidate.
Rybak’s poll results show the mayor’s strength and they are "a testament to Mayor Rybak’s tireless energy and passion for making Minnesota a great state once again," Campaign Manager Tina Smith said. "Even though R.T. was the last candidate to get in the race, he’s been all across Minnesota — and he’s only just getting started."
Many candidates who trailed Kelliher and Rybak found reasons to continue their campaigns.
"The straw poll results reinforced what we have known for months," state Sen. Tom Bakk of Cook said. "There will be a number of strong candidates vying for the DFL endorsement at the convention in April."
Another Iron Ranger, Rep. Tom Rukavina of Virginia, said he was "humbled and energized" by the straw poll results.
“This goes to show that a little money and a big, refreshingly honest message has made me a contender at the DFL convention," Rukavina said.
On the GOP side, Seifert said he wants to emphasize to supporters that "this is the beginning, not the end," so they do not become complacent after his 20-point win.
Emmer said that in the six months he has been running that he has done better than Seifert, who has a long history in the House, including as GOP leader.
He said that indications are that the split of delegates is closer to 50-50 than the straw poll shows.
Emmer, a Delano lawmaker, said he is doing better than then-Rep. Tim Pawlenty did in 2002.
"We performed 4 points better than a current governor when he was taking on a similar well heeled guy," Emmer said.
Incomplete, unofficial results from precinct caucus straw polls, as reported by the Minnesota secretary of state’s office:
(3,282 of 4,129 precincts reporting)
Tom Bakk, 1,334, 6.21 percent
Matt Entenza, 1,451, 6.75 percent
Susan Gaertner, 448, 2.08 percent
Steve Kelley, 894, 4.16 percent
Margaret Anderson Kelliher, 4,316, 20.08 percent
John Marty, 2,070, 9.63 percent
Felix Montez, 17, 9.63 percent
Tom Rukavina, 1,555, 7,23 percent
R.T. Rybak, 4,704, 21.88 percent
Ole Savior, 21, 0.1 percent
Paul Thissen, 1,555, 7.23 percent
Uncommitted, 3,131, 14.57 percent
(Mark Dayton asked not to be on ballot)
(4,073 of 4,129 precincts reporting)
Robert Carney, 31, 0.16 percent
Leslie Davis, 113, 0.6 percent
Tom Emmer, 7,450, 39.4 percent
Bill Haas, 313, 1.66 percent
David Hann, 983, 5.2 percent
Philip Herwig, 205, 1.08 percent
Marty Seifert, 9,459, 50.02 percent
Write-ins, 357, 1.89 percent
(8 of 8 precincts reporting)
Robert Hahn, 21, 8.02 percent
Tom Horner, 126, 48.09 percent
Joe Repya, 74, 28.24 percent
Other, 41, 15.65 percent
(Party also is holding an on-line poll through Feb. 28)